New analysis from systems change company Systemiq quantifies how protein diversification can drive economic growth, enhance trade, create future-proof jobs, and promote environmental sustainability, positioning Germany as a leader in Europe in the emerging alternative protein sector. 

The study ‘A Taste of Tomorrow: How protein diversification can strengthen Germany’s economy‘ was supported by the nonprofit think tank the Good Food Institute (GFI Europe). It is the first to explore the opportunities presented by plant-based, fermentation-made and cultivated foods for Germany, encompassing economic, environmental, and social dimensions while also addressing remaining barriers to widespread adoption. The report shows that Germany’s potential lies not only in producing sustainable foods for a strong domestic market, but even more so in becoming the industrial backbone of this nascent sector by developing and manufacturing the necessary machinery and infrastructure for worldwide exports. 

The report outlines various future scenarios, based on the level of policy support and investment. Under a conservative scenario, in which the sector would receive little political support and would fall behind in global competition in terms of private and public investments, the domestic market could reach €5 billion by 2030 and €8 billion by 2045. Even under this conservative scenario, the total market opportunity including export, could create roughly 45,000 jobs by 2030 and 115,000 jobs by 2045. However, due to unsolved challenges, Germany would lose its current leadership role.

In a high-ambition scenario, significant regulatory and investment support could position Germany as a global leader in protein diversification. The domestic market for foods based on plants, fermentation and cultivation could grow to €10 billion by 2030 and €23 billion by 2045, equalling around 10% of today’s food and drinks industry revenues. In this ambitious scenario, the industry could create up to 95,000 jobs by 2030 and up to 250,000 future-proof jobs by 2045. 

Germany’s economic potential includes producing sustainable food to meet the demands of its robust domestic market. However, an even greater opportunity lies in leveraging its expertise in manufacturing machinery, such as extruders, fermentors, and other B2B inputs. As a global leader in mechanical engineering and exports, Germany is uniquely positioned to become a cornerstone of the international alternative protein sector, extending its influence far beyond its borders. The total export opportunity for Germany could be up to €15 billion in 2030 and up to €35 billion in 2045 in the high-ambition scenario. 

Broader environmental and societal benefits

Therefore, scaling alternative proteins contributes to a variety of German policy goals from regaining innovation leadership and competitiveness to fostering food security and reducing dependence on imports and volatile supply chains.

Beyond the economic opportunities, diversifying Germany’s protein supply could also deliver environmental and nutritional benefits. Boosting consumption of alternative proteins can help address costly dietary health concerns by providing foods with lower cholesterol and saturated fats, while addressing deficiencies of dietary fibre. 

Estimates of the relative environmental impacts of alternative proteins are at an early stage, but based on the best available impact factors and officially reported impacts, the analysis estimates the following ranges of effects by 2045 in medium and high-ambition scenarios:

• GHG emissions could be reduced by 4.8-8.1 million tons of CO₂e (equal to the emissions of 1-1.8 million cars).
• Land use requirements could be reduced by up to 1.2-2 million ha (roughly the size of Schleswig Holstein or Sachsen-Anhalt, respectively).
• Freshwater use could be lowered by 76-129 million m³ (equal to the annual consumption of 420,000 German households).

Investment and policy support needed to unlock economic potential

The analysis points out that the sector’s success will depend on several factors, such as technological advances, public and private investments in innovation, and a transparent path to market including regulatory approvals based on scientific evidence. Policymakers play a pivotal role in creating an enabling environment for protein diversification, ensuring Germany capitalises on its potential. Currently, Germany’s alternative protein market faces significant barriers that risk stifling growth and global competitiveness. To address the specific challenges, the study identifies five strategic policy interventions, which align with national policy priorities:

• Support companies through the regulatory framework for novel foods and provide targeted support to enable companies to file high-quality applications.
• Significantly increase public R&D investments from €13 million annually today to €140 million annually on average, including around €30 million for setting up an innovation hub.
• Deploy €120 million annually to catalyse private investments in alternative protein infrastructure by de-risking investments, using tools like guarantees and low-interest loans.

• Ensure that plant-based meat and other alternative proteins are included in community catering for settings such as daycare centres, schools, senior facilities, and public workplace cafeterias.
• Strengthen the domestic protein supply chain through incentives for farmers which can position them as key players in a diversified protein system. 

Sophie Hermann, Partner at Systemiq: “Protein diversification presents a compelling solution, offering sustainable food options, boosting Germany’s economic competitiveness through innovation-driven export, and creating future-proof jobs. The alternative protein market is still in its early stages, with some uncertainty remaining. Over the next five years, developments in regulation, public and private investments, and technology will play a critical role in shaping the market’s trajectory and reducing this uncertainty. With concerted efforts from all stakeholders and the right policy support, Germany can position itself as a leader in protein diversification, driving strong innovation to secure future-proof jobs, economic growth, sustainability, and food security.”

Ivo Rzegotta, Senior Public Affairs Manager at the Good Food Institute Europe: “German policymakers have a unique opportunity to make the nation a front-runner in protein diversification. The next federal government should incorporate the proposed policy interventions in its government agenda, particularly earmarking public investments for research and infrastructure and providing sufficient regulatory support. These measures can incentivise both investor and corporate action, positioning Germany as a global forerunner in critical protein diversification. Failing to act decisively would not only forfeit these opportunities but also risk leaving Germany behind in an urgent transition with huge benefits for our economy and society.”